Is there still a market for power and energy storage BMS? why

Recently, there have been several friends who have made investments. I met the author and asked if the current BMS of the power battery and energy storage market has investment value. Everyone is vacillating. The reasons why they hesitate are mainly the following:

1. As the core component of electric vehicles, the main engine factory and the battery factory have strong desires to engage in their own work.

2. With the maturity of BMS manufacturers' technology, each chip solution factory integrates many battery management and detection functions into the chip, and the core competitiveness of BMS manufacturers.

3. The power BMS manufacturers led by Kele, after experiencing a surge in performance after 2014 and 2015, saw a sharp decline in net profit levels in 2016 and 2017. The net profit of 630 has plummeted to 3.55 million.

Under such circumstances, on June 30 this year, Klein Technology announced that it has completed a total of 159 million financing. According to the new round of fixed price increase, the valuation of Keli Technology remains as high as 4.8 billion.

The author questioned the friends in the investment community and believed that the market for power and energy storage battery BMS can still be carried out for four reasons:

Article 1: In the current BMS market dominated by OEMs and mainstream battery manufacturers, the OEM and the battery factory will do their own BMS, and will eventually smash their own feet. Whether it is an energy storage system or an electric car, the biggest quality problem is the battery pack. Everyone can recall the Samsung Note7 battery door incident that was raging last year.

Samsung's foreign first bombing, indicating the Samsung battery that had problems at the time, and the battery sold in the Chinese market is using CALT battery, so there is no explosion hazard, followed by the domestic note7 fire, and finally admitted to themselves The phone battery design is a problem.

As most of the battery factories, they have their own battery production lines, and this part of the investment is very high. If you use your own BMS to have quality problems, the pot of this quality problem, in the end, all must be back. And if you use a third-party BMS problem, you will naturally find a person with a back pot. Whether it's a company strategy or a battery pack, it's wise to spend some money and find a BMS manufacturer that is behind the black pot.

This is somewhat similar to the urban management in the country. It is the same as the temporary workers.

Article 2: The Chinese market is a tiered market. First-line automakers and first-line battery factories vertically integrate BMS, but there are still a large number of second-tier automakers, such as logistics depots, hundreds of small and medium-sized battery factories and most energy storage companies. None of them have the ability to make BMS self-made, which leaves a room for growth for BMS manufacturers.

Article 3: The price and cost of batteries are inevitable in the long run, which will drive the long-term increase in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets. This is also evidenced by the exit schedule of the fuel vehicles that have been heated up for some time. Yesterday at the company meeting, Lao Zhao showed the film of the business plan to the entrepreneurs of the Phoenix team:

Why is the market for power and energy storage BMS still getting better?

The development of electric vehicles and BMS market has a similar phenomenon. Many people describe the trend of continuous improvement is ideal, but there are always many pits in reality. Many companies will fall into the pit and never climb up, but in the long run, This market is optimistic.

Article 4: The valuation of the electric vehicle-related industry will return to rationality. In any industry, the light is relatively light at the beginning. The author said at the meeting yesterday that even the little fresh meat will become a greasy uncle with a thermos cup. The author of the 1990s and Lao Xu did not expect to become today's thermos uncle after 20 years.

In the electric vehicle-related industry, dozens of listed companies will be cultivated in the future. The era of Ning, which has recently been used in the circle of friends, is typical. It is reasonable to believe that there are four to five listed companies in power and energy storage BMS manufacturers.

Based on these four points, the author's conclusion is: as long as the valuation is reasonable, there is no need to invest in BMS now.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.