Future demand for lithium carbonate

I recently visited the lithium industry chain related research institutions and experts, including Lithium Industry association, China north vehicle research institute power battery laboratory, CCID consulting and auto industry association, will now relevant summary is as follows:

1) in the near future lithium battery demand mainly 3 c and electric bicycle market. About 41% of lithium carbonate in the downstream demand for lithium battery and lithium battery of mobile phones and computers accounted 38% and 32%, respectively, in the rapid growth of smart phones and tablet PC shipments, 3 c industry demand for lithium carbonate form a strong support. In addition, electric bicycle is expected to bring growth in the near future. Domestic electric bicycle production in 2012 to 35 million vehicles, including lithium battery proportion was only 3%, this year is expected to reach 5%, 60%, but it is still far lower than Europe and therefore the future lithium battery percentage will gradually improve.

2) lithium demand still see the electric car development in the future. The lithium battery industry demand for lithium carbonate only 10% used for electric vehicles, but due to large automobile power battery required dosage of lithium carbonate, if need lithium carbonate 0.6 kg per KWH in capacity, and pure electric and plug-in hybrid and hybrid electric vehicle battery capacity of 35 respectively, 10 and 2.5 KWH to calculate, is the electric car CAGR of lithium carbonate demand in 2012 to 2016 is expected to reach 45%, and in 2016 ~ 2020 CAGR of about 16%.

3) salt expansion is relatively rigid, mainly from the recent capacity expansion in extracting lithium ore.

Global lithium supply 68% comes from salt lake overseas, but because of the low salt lake lithium producers overseas business income accounted for, decision-making capacity change is not sensitive to the lithium industry supply and demand change; And domestic salt lake resources endowment, the restriction of the natural environment and geographical location, difficult to achieve stable production and utilization have been low, capacity expansion with difficulty. Relatively, ore extracting lithium technology mature and stable, and the cost has certain advantages, so the capacity expansion can be implemented quickly and led to the recent capacity expansion will mainly come from the ore and extracting lithium carbonate including 17000 tons of galactic Lithium Industry battery projects, ten thousand tons of Jiangxi Feng Lithium Industry lithium, lithium carbonate day qi Lithium Industry 5000 tons of battery capacity and methyl LuXiang shares mine expansion.

advice

We are still bullish on lithium carbonate future demand outlook; Recent technological advantages obviously is expected to directly benefit of enterprise, long-term with lithium resources companies more competitive. Countries continue to guide new energy automobile industry policy and subsidies, guide and support the development and popularization of the electric car is good lithium carbonate demand in the future. We believe that the recent lithium has technical advantages, product variety is complete, entering the international supply chain enterprises is expected to directly benefit, such as lithium industry leading Jiangxi Feng Lithium Industry; But in the long run, if the new energy vehicles can drive lithium carbonate demand rapid growth, to support the price of lithium carbonate, lithium has resource of enterprise is more dominant, such as buy the shares of terry's day Lithium Industry.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.