The new energy vehicle subsidy policy lithium battery concept stock or will enjoy the industry dividend.

The lithium battery sector, new energy vehicles subsidies TuiPo for years, part of industry chain link's profit does a certain impact, but it cannot become a reason to put its long-term development. In fact, TuiPo help catalytic technology progress, drive cost down. Considering the probability of future big domestic new energy is the world's largest car market, superposition have already demonstrated that domestic manufacturing cost advantages, the future lithium in China battery industry ".

In particular, this year a new implementation of subsidy policy is expected to be released from the supply (products) end market demand in the hot style, promote industry development from subsidies drive to consumption driven. In this process, in order to CATL era (Ningde) to represent the core of the enterprise will fully enjoy the industry rapid development dividend, short time to process due to misunderstanding of market provides opportunities for long term layout.

China battery industry market outlook is due to our country power battery industrialization started relatively late, at present has not yet reached Japan Panasonic, Samsung and LG and other international business competition level, so have not been able to enter the tesla, such as Toyota, ford, the world's large car companies supply system. As CATL has become the supplier of BMW, Volkswagen, domestic fate is rewriting, the future of domestic power battery to explode in new energy vehicle demand and cost advantage of China under the force of onto the world stage.

Outbreak of demand is the power (600482) the basis of the rapid development of battery industry. In the past three years, China's new energy vehicle volume has successfully completed 300000, 500000 and 700000, the compound increased by more than 50%.The indications are that the policy level is firmly toward "2020 2020 new energy car" sales goals, the next three years industry will remain more than 40% of high growth, production and sales for the development of China's power battery industry laid a solid foundation. To fulfill the goals of the 2 million vehicles in 2020, this year's total sales over millions of vehicles, the calculation of power battery demand will reach 50 GWH, up 40% from a year earlier.

Cost leadership establishes China power battery in the international market competitiveness. Current power battery in the vehicle cost proportion is as high as 50%, given the new energy vehicles than traditional fuel economy don't have a car, the future control of the vehicle cost depends on the cost of power battery. And battery costs lower and relying on digital China 3 c era survive long battery industry chain base, if we don't have the positive material, negative material, diaphragm, a perfect shelter-forest link such as electrolyte, the realization of the cost advantage is described. These hierarchical link generally have low technical barriers, resource constraints (even cobalt, long-term supply and demand will be reversed) characteristics, therefore only scale can promote efficiency, reduce cost, and this is the very good at the place of domestic manufacturing.

According to the CPIA economic data show that China's polysilicon, batteries, components, silicon and other manufacturing capacity of global proportion has reached 48%, 68%, 74% and 48% respectively. Power battery industry before the complete global capacity occupation, China will experience first rounds of the increase of concentration, to continue the industry reshuffle, this process will be accompanied by the improvement of industry competition and leading profit improvement. According to the high lithium electricity economic data, power battery industry chain each link top three market share than in 2017, 2016 annual average have improved significantly.

New energy vehicles entering a new phase of development of new energy vehicles in recent years the development of roughly divided into two stages, in June 2018, is a two phase of the watershed. Is on June 12, 2018, 2018 new subsidy policy execution time points, before that, the production and marketing of new energy vehicle market is concentrated in the commercial vehicle and A0 / a00:1450:8006 level passenger car and a typical consumer demand; After this, with long life electric (BEV) as the representative of medium car/SUV and with plug-in hybrid (PHEV) as the representative of compact car/SUV will from high-end, low end of the two typical route to drive consumer demand.

Prior to June 2018, based on battery technology is not mature, consumer habits and has not been established, new energy vehicles overall consumption focused on commercial vehicles represented by bus, car and represented by micro/small passenger car. Commercial vehicle to spread rapidly there are a few reasons: one is often larger, this kind of car passenger cars compared to above there is no battery low density of frustration; Second, better economy, both passenger cars, buses and logistics vehicles, due to large range, long term operating costs can be superior to fuel cars. And the outbreak of the micro/small cars (A0 / a00:1450:8006) is more related to the subsidy system is not perfect, from the point of the past few years, A0 / a00:1450:8006 level car has been the leading products of the electric car market in our country, even in the first 3 months of sales in the first 10 new energy vehicles, there is still a Baic EC, Jiangling E200, know beans D2 grade a00:1450:8006 products occupy the position of the three seats., according to passenger cib before march this year, A0 and a00:1450:8006 combined sales of about 64800, accounting for 55% of the new energy passenger car sales over the same period. These cars are mostly based on the original A0 / a00:1450:8006 level body for simple SanDian system (motor, electric control, battery), has the development of low cost, low technical content and the characteristics of product prices low, the presence of these products greatly squeezed the mainstream car companies invest a lot of money and energy research and development of pure electric product space, is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry.

After June 2018, the policy gradually realize A0 / a00:1450:8006 level of new energy vehicles "good money after bad money" effect, can see the new subsidy program brought a heavy blow to a low range model, including pure electric range within 150 km of car allowance will be cancelled directly from 20000 yuan in 2017, and says most of the models in the list are in the range, such as Beijing EC, Jianghuai IEV, etc.; And more than 300 km of subsidies will further strengthen, in order to support the development of high-end products. And policy support to the product side to cooperate to release new demand, just this year will be significant changes in the supply end a year. In high-end models, we see the horse, Xiao Peng, Wei to pure electric (BEV) long range models broken bits, the partial products are copy tesla path of success in the United States, taking the elite line way sales; Is more worth looking forward to the second half of the year is expected to be fast on the amount of compact plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models. Compact car/SUV is the backbone of the traditional fuel vehicle market, as this year roewe/mg, Geely Borui star model, the PHEV version of the launch, in combination with license advantage, tax reduction and new energy subsidies this SanBanFu, PHEV version is likely to be under price advantage with series models with hot style.

Despite the PHEV itself purely electric range is small, but it is not user habits may lack of transition, because of its better solve the consumer concern about charging the inconvenience, but also in the form of product to the market to popularize the new energy vehicle power/experience advantage. Plug before march this year to mix model has showed a strong competitive power, believe that later will become a new stage of growth driven by new energy vehicle mainstay.

Attention CATL bonus effect of the rise of new energy vehicles on the right track approaches, power battery as the industrial chain of the highest barriers, costs accounted for the biggest link, coexistence and the entire industry. With customer advantages, cost advantages and technological advantages, CATL era (Ningde) is expected to win China's power battery for half of the market, or even plays a vital role in the competition for international market share, become the biggest beneficiaries of the new energy vehicles industry rise.

From the point of customer advantages, CATL is China's first into the joint venture automakers power battery manufacturers. From the perspective of the manufacturers of power battery enterprises in 2017, CATL compete with other competitors have not in the same field, it not only completed the main new energy for China passenger car companies supporting, is China's first into the joint venture auto enterprises supporting manufacturers, also recently became the Volkswagen group MEB only power battery electric vehicle platform in domestic suppliers. Considering the vast domestic new energy vehicle market, the future will be more traditional foreign car companies invest in China, as is already CATL, BMW, Volkswagen suppliers will no doubt become the object of the auto enterprises competition. Other competitors, by contrast, has a long way to chase, as the installed capacity after CATL BYD (002594), although battery technology is leading in the industry, but it is making cars and to build the identity of the battery to make it difficult to develop third party customer (worries technology used car companies);Can such as first, Bick, again the porch, although also leader of the Chinese power battery, but their main shipment is focused on the bus, car, and other areas of the commercial vehicles, passenger car is still in the client authentication phase, also for them in the future road resistance and long. As for the top 10 away battery manufacturers, with the improvement of industry threshold, is likely to face the survival crisis in the shuffle.

As for the cost advantage, it is with the customer advantage, technology advantage complement each other, work together to promote. Technology brings to the CATL customer advantages, the customer the advantage in a production capacity of scale advantages, to achieve cost advantage. Technical advantage, look from the prospectus CATL R&D personnel 3425 people, research and development costs of main business income year after year to improve (2015-2017 were 4.96%, 7.39%, 8.37%), many of the technical material and equipment suppliers are from CATL, this is also the core of its batteries can lead to other companies. And in terms of cost, for power battery to above, in addition to the cost of materials (BOM), the rest of the mainly equipment and research and development costs of depreciation and amortization, this means that the greater the capacity, the less contribution to the cost of per KWh. High lithium electricity economic data show that in 2017 CATL with 12 GWH the no.1 industry sales (although industry capacity percentage is not high, but the industry many of low-end invalid capacity, capacity, and capacity planning according to the company, in 2020 is expected to reach 50 GWH, over the next few years absolute CATL will firmly grasp the industry leading position.

Mentioned earlier this year, will enter a new stage, new energy vehicles development means business is good again, the downturn in the short time it is high time to industry chain layout. From the point of view of the uncertainty, CATL is undoubtedly one of the best mark, after the public to raise funds will further consolidate its dominance. Only regret is CATL household names, this time the unicorn listed after the material will be a short time is difficult to have a good point. Considering the CATL growth will also lead to the development of its raw materials and equipment suppliers, try to dig along the supply chain for investment opportunities. It is predicted that the anode materials, structures and equipment of the three links the most benefit from the CATL, benefit the enterprise will include Shanshan co (600884), long garden group (600525), Dali (002850), tai pu han (603659), blessed materials (002709) and Jiangsu Guotai (002091), etc.

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