New energy vehicle high-end cycle open power battery enterprise differentiation is obvious

The rapid growth of the new energy car market brings growth opportunities to the upstream and downstream industrial chains. Industry insiders believe that in the second half of 2018, the high-end process of automotive demand will drive resources and materials to return to a stronger landscape. In addition, thanks to domestic consumer models and overseas battery chain transfusion, the profitability of battery material companies will be improved, and the profitability of companies that enter the overseas industrial chain after differentiation is strong.

High-end cycle open

With the change of the double-point policy and the rapid improvement of the supply side, the high-end process of new energy vehicles in China and the world is accelerating.

2018 is the product of new energy vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, such as Beiqi EU 5, BYD Qin EV450 and Songev 400, SAIC Rongwei Ei5, and Jilidihao EV450 have all appeared. The operating range of pure electric vehicles is generally 300km or even 400km.

In 2018, the policy area strengthened its subsidy support for Class A models, and the subsidy quota increased instead of decreasing. According to the current market feedback and depot model plan, A-class pure electric vehicles above 400km will be the main competition stage for each car company in the second half of 2018, representing models such as EV 460, Jianghuai iEVA 50, and Beiqi New Energy ET 400.

Judging from the catalog of new energy promotion models, the market is changing from A00 to A0 and A: In the first half of 2018, the total average length of each model in multiple batches reached 4160mm, compared with 3973mm in the same period last year.

In addition, with the range of new energy vehicles in the joint venture also continuing to increase, coupled with relatively large subsidies, and the continuous upgrading of interior and exterior accessories, the listing of these brand models will set off a new round of consumer upgrades. Stimulate more consumers, especially those in restricted cities, to opt for Class A new energy vehicles.

Changjiang Securities expects sales of new energy vehicles to reach 1.08 million in 2018, a 36 per cent year-on-year increase. Among them, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 800,000, an increase of 45 % year-on-year; 100,000 new energy passenger cars, a year-on-year growth rate of 15 %; Pure electric special vehicles sold 180,000 vehicles, a year-on-year growth rate of 17 %.

"In the second half of the year, the new A0 and A-class cars will be accelerated and continue to stimulate new demand. The acceleration of the high-end process of new energy passenger vehicles will bring the demand for high-end industrial chains to be rapidly released, and the industrial chain companies will enter the stage of supply shortage. Electric vehicles with truly new platforms began to market on a large scale in 2019, so the high-end cycle that began in the second half of this year will become a long-term cycle boom in the next five years. Dengxue, an analyst at Tianfeng Securities, said.

power battery Enterprise Differentiation

With the increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the production of power batteries has increased significantly year-on-year, and power batteries have gradually become the dominant force in the growth of the lithium battery industry. In 2018, Soochow Securities expects the installed power of power batteries to reach 46 GWh, an increase of 30 % year-on-year.

High-end production capacity is tight, and low-end production capacity is facing rapid exit. "Small, low-level power battery companies are being eliminated in competition," said Chenqingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100. He also pointed out that "China's power battery companies have dropped from about 150 in 2015 to about 100 in 2017, and one-third of the companies have been eliminated." "

At present, the leading effect of the power battery industry has been highlighted. In the era of Ningde and BYD, they were in the first tier and occupied 50 % of the market share; Guoxuan Gaoke, Fueneng Technology, Bic, and lishen battery are located in the second tier, accounting for nearly 25 % of the market share, and the other 25 % of the market share is competed by other battery manufacturers.

"The power battery spoiler oligopoly pattern has given it a strong say in upstream material suppliers and downstream vehicle factories. It can well transfer the pressure of the vehicle factory's price reduction to material suppliers and ensure profitability. A senior executive of a power battery company told China Securities.

In addition, the international supply chain has also brought new opportunities to the leading power battery industry chain manufacturers. Volkswagen, BMW and other overseas car companies have been electric, is expected to be completed by 2020, the electric platform is currently determined worldwide battery partners, to increase global power batteries and materials procurement. In the era of Ningde, for example, it has entered the supply chain system of BMW, VW, Daimler, Nissan and other vehicles, and is expected to benefit from global procurement. As Japanese battery companies are accelerating the certification of domestic materials companies, Korean battery companies are also gradually opening up the procurement system, domestic diaphragm, electrolyte manufacturers will step up infiltration, is expected to enter the second half of this year, large-scale procurement.

The general secretary of the association, Cuidongshu, told the China Securities Daily that the recent run-in period between the midstream battery factory and the downstream vehicle factory for high-mileage models is expected to increase significantly after the end of the run-in period in the third quarter. The fourth quarter of each year is the traditional season of new energy car sales, the second half of the power battery demand will appear to pick up.

Upstream towards inventory replenishment phase

In terms of upstream raw materials, cobalt lithium demand may have begun in the "new season". According to a recent report by McKinsey, a consultancy, lithium and cobalt: the story of two commodities, demand for lithium in 2025 is likely to increase by 318 % as a result of the popularity of electric vehicles compared with 2017. By then, the demand for lithium salts for electric vehicle power batteries will account for 76 % of the global market demand for lithium salts. In terms of cobalt, the world's demand for refined cobalt will double in 2025 due to the popularity of electric vehicles. By then, global demand for refined cobalt from electric-vehicle power cells will exceed half of total demand.

Indeed, the price of cobalt lithium has continued to fall recently. Among them, MB cobalt low-low and domestic metal cobalt continued to fall to 39.70 US dollars per pound and 530,000 tons, domestic and foreign price differences reached 140,000 tons, and battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were 123,000 tons. And 142,500 tons / ton.

Analysts at Yangtze securities believe that from January to May, the demand for new energy in the middle reaches was weak, in particular iron lithium is in the inventory phase, but the second half of the new subsidy policy is about to be implemented, and new models-new batteries-new materials are expected to bring about a rebound in resource demand. In addition, at present, the mainstream ternary material enterprises have been nearly full production, while the overall industrial inventory consumption to the low, bottom-up "back to back" order release is expected to bring replenishment requirements.

A person from the positive material industry told the China Securities News that now it is the general trend for high nickel to replace the lithium iron phosphate pool with three yuan. The supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries is inevitably excessive, and the high-nickel ternary power battery has more advantages. It is expected that the second half of 2019 will begin to be large-scale. This leads to the increasingly important position of the ternary precursor, which will be beneficial to the cobalt raw materials and powder grade lithium hydroxide in the upper reaches of the ternary industrial chain.

On the supply side, Shiyi, an analyst at Haitong Securities, believes that after the promulgation of the Congolese gold mining law, the supply side is expected to become more oligopolistic with the implementation of severe fermentation. Therefore, the fundamentals of cobalt supply and demand in the second half of the year are expected to be reduced supply and demand growth. In the first half of the year, when stocks are removed, supply control may exceed expectations or demand may accelerate the price rebound.

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